ANU Honorary Professor Leszek Buszynski is one of the few who can speak knowledgeably about the bigger picture of the Russia-Ukraine war. Photo: Supplied.
It has become so difficult for Australian academics to maintain connections in Russia that Australia’s expertise in understanding Russian geopolitics has been largely lost. ANU Honorary Professor Leszek Buszynski is one of the few who can speak knowledgeably about the bigger picture of the Russian-Ukraine war.
With his Polish ancestry, Poland’s long history of conflict with Russia and Russia’s widespread impact on international politics, Dr Buszynski has always been interested in what Russia is doing.
His academic life started with his research on Russia, and he wrote books and academic articles. At the time, he had connections in Russia and could interview people.
“Gradually it became more difficult. My colleagues who had worked in the field for many years either retired or had to move into other fields to get work,” he said. “All that expertise was lost.”
Dr Buszynski now specialises in Indo-Pacific geopolitics, but he has retained his fascination with Russia.
He completed his doctorate at the London School of Economics and has worked at universities in Singapore and Japan. He has been lecturing at ANU for 15 years.
Russian politics are opaque and require a special understanding.
Many people in Western countries think they can understand what is happening in Russia by extension of what is going on in their country, with an assumption Russia thinks like Western countries, “but Russia acts differently in ways that we may not anticipate”, he said. As a result, much of the media coverage in Australia of what is happening there is often inaccurate because of a lack of information.
The way the Russian Government acts and responds is influenced by its tumultuous history and former political leaders, such as Joseph Stalin.
Russia is also characterised by an inertial force that has been seen several times in its history. It used a scorched-earth policy to defeat Napoleon and adopted other extreme tactics during World War II to wear down its opponents before launching a counteroffensive.
“Whereas in many situations Westerners, particularly Americans, would give up quickly because something isn’t working or there is no money in it, Russians keep going on and on,” Dr Buszynski said.
Joseph Conrad’s book Under Western Eyes highlighted the difficulties of viewing Russia through Western eyes.
“Why do the Russian people tolerate the abuse by their leaders and what is the call to arms in the Ukraine?” Dr Buszynski said. “Russia isn’t a country we can understand in the Western way.”
He said Russia’s initial attacks on Ukraine were a miscalculation, but based on a realistic reckoning that Russia would lose Ukraine forever if the smaller country joined NATO.
The war is taking a much heavier toll on Ukrainian people than on Russians. Ukraine’s drones are targeting airports and oil refinery installations, but Russian drones are hitting Ukrainian people.
“That is why Russian President Vladimir Putin is before the International Criminal Court for war crimes,” Dr Buszynski said.
Drones are being used extensively in the Russia-Ukraine war. Photo: iStock/Mailfor.
Eventually, both sides will reach a stage of war weariness and more intense negotiations will follow.
Those will be drawn out over several years because that is the way Russia works.
“Russia will be in occupation of what it has already conquered and there is no way I can see Russia giving up, given the inertial force,” Dr Buszynski said. “Ukraine doesn’t want to give up any land in the east and the Russians are saying they want to hold onto that land.”
Unlike Israel, where there is some public opposition to the war in Palestine, riot police quickly silenced early demonstrations in Russia’s major cities against the war in Ukraine. Nor is there opposition from university students because the universities are under government control.
All President Putin’s opponents on the Liberal side of Russian politics have been eliminated and Dr Buszynski sees little scope for him to be deposed because the 72-year-old’s control over the system is far too tight.
“I can’t see him being pushed out by a Liberal element which would bring an early end to the war,” he said. “As he ages, he will select a successor from the right, or the military side, who will control the situation and reinvigorate the Russian response.”
Dr Buszynski will talk about Russia’s endgame at Moruya Golf Club on Sunday, 21 September, at 2:30 pm.
“There is a much bigger picture attached to the war in Ukraine and I am going to explain that.”
Entry is free and the talk, with questions and answers at the end, will run for an hour.
